What turnout propensity is for
Campaigns use turnout propensity to sort work. It helps identify which voters are reliable participants, which voters may need turnout follow-up, and which lists are realistic for field, mail, or volunteer programs.
That makes it a planning tool. It is meant to help campaigns rank effort, not predict how someone will vote on a candidate or issue.
- Ranks likelihood of participation
- Supports canvassing and turnout decisions
- Helps campaigns compare segment quality
- Does not measure candidate support
What usually goes into it
A turnout score is often based on participation history and other visible voter-file signals such as age range, registration status, vote-by-mail indicators, or registration recency.
The exact scoring logic varies by tool, which is why campaigns should understand the method before treating the score as a serious planning input.
How CA Voter treats it
CA Voter keeps turnout propensity tied to visible campaign signals so operators can inspect why a voter lands in a higher or lower tier. The goal is to make prioritization easier to review before a list is exported.
That keeps the score grounded in campaign workflow rather than turning it into an opaque label.
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Questions
Is turnout propensity the same as support?
No. Turnout propensity estimates likelihood to participate. It does not estimate whether someone supports a candidate or measure.
Can campaigns use turnout propensity for canvassing?
Yes. It is commonly used to prioritize persuasion, turnout, or supporter-contact lists depending on the campaign goal.
Does CA Voter explain the score?
Yes. The product is designed to keep the underlying ranking logic inspectable enough for campaign review.