What the score is for
Turnout propensity is a ranking signal. It helps campaigns decide which voters are likely to vote, which voters need turnout support, and which universes are realistic for canvassing, mail, SMS, or volunteer calls.
The score is not a guarantee of future behavior. It is a way to order work based on prior participation and registration signals that campaigns can review.
Signals behind the first version
CA Voter's current scoring path is intentionally transparent. It weighs participation count most heavily, then applies smaller adjustments for age range, permanent vote-by-mail status, active registration status, and registration recency.
Because the score is built from visible features, a field director can understand why a segment is high-propensity, mid-propensity, or low-propensity before exporting it.
- Past participation count
- Age-based turnout curve
- Permanent vote-by-mail signal
- Active or inactive registration status
- Registration recency
How campaigns can use it
High-propensity voters can help a campaign define reliable supporters, likely mail voters, or persuasion targets. Mid-propensity and drop-off voters can support turnout programs when the campaign has the capacity to follow up.
The best use is comparative: inspect a district, compare segment sizes, then export only the universe that matches the campaign's time, budget, and volunteer capacity.
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Questions
Is turnout propensity the same as support score?
No. Turnout propensity estimates likelihood to participate. It does not estimate whether a voter supports a candidate or ballot measure.
Does voting history show who someone voted for?
No. California voter participation history can show whether a voter participated in an election and the voting method, but it does not include ballot choices.